“Are we going to end up getting divorced?”
by Mira and Charles on December 6th, 2008 Yes.
No, no, just kidding. I have no idea if you’re headed for divorce. But a recent Freakonomics blog in the New York Times got me thinking about how to predict divorce, and why it’s important to try to do so. So are you at risk of getting divorced? Here are some answers.
Let’s start with the Freakonomics blog. This entry is based on data that claim to predict your risk of divorce based solely on when you got married, how old you were when you married, how many years you’ve been married, and your level of education.
Is this a valid predictor? The answer is yes and no. Yes, I’m sure this is a hell of a good predictor for large groups of people. But it’s not a good predictor for you. Your risk of divorce isn’t 35 percent or whatever. It’s either close to zero or close to 100 percent.
The point is that your marriage is either in big trouble or it isn’t. And if it’s in big trouble you will probably get divorced. UNLESS YOU DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. That’s important. Just because you’re in big trouble doesn’t mean you’re doomed. It just means that you’re doomed if you don’t get help.
And what are the signs that you’re in big trouble? To get the best answer to that for your particular case, read Too Good to Leave, Too Bad to Stay. That’s been the gold standard for over a decade for people who want to know if they’d be better off staying in their marriage or getting out.
And just what are the forces that lead to a marriage being too bad to stay in?
It’s all about the glue. Marriage is a house held together by glue sitting in an earthquake zone. If you’ve got the glue and you’re not too badly shaken, you’ll hold up. Not enough glue or too much shaking, and you’re in trouble.
Some of the glue is what the house was built with. I’m talking about your chemistry. Here the authoritative text is Is He Mr. Right?, which outlines all the 5 dimensions of chemistry, and how to tell if you’ve got them starting out. Briefly, though, they are: it’s easy to get close; you feel safe, you feel respect; you have fun; and it feels good to touch, kiss, make love. If you’re low on any one of these starting out, you’ve got a problem that will get bigger over time.
Then there’s the question of how much the house is shaking. Most marriages are vulnerable to stress. The less glue you have, the more vulnerable to stress you are. And today the biggest stressor is just not having time for each other. The best book on this is The Weekend Marriage, which talks about how little time couples spend together, how much damage this causes, and what you can do about it (a lot!).
But you’re lucky. You don’t just have the glue you started out with. The real secret that keeps most marriages from divorce is that they keep making new glue. If distance and disconnection are the enemies, leading the marriage to fall apart at the slightest tremor, maintaining the connections is your salvation. It’s the good things you do together that bring you closer that make all the difference. Like what? It’s mostly the little things. A smile. Taking your partner’s hand. Being forgiving when you might be resentful. Spending an hour or so really listening to your partner.
One other secret. A marriage is launched when you both say, “I think you’re terrific.” A marriage stays strong and healthy because both of you can say, “You think I’m terrific.” In other words, it’s launched because you love your spouse. It survives because you make your spouse feel loved. That’s the most important thing.
