Can you predict the success of a marriage in 5 minutes?
by Mira and Charles on March 26th, 2010How seriously should we take John Gottman?
Things are hard in daily life. Getting out of bed is hard. The daily commute is hard. Getting along with other people is hard. So we want magic, some little dusting of wonderfulness that makes life just a little less drab. And that’s why when something is too good to be true, we believe it anyway.
No wonder so many people jumped on the Gottman juggernaut. Here was this guy claiming, on the basis of research, that he could predict with 90% accuracy whether a couple would get divorced after looking at their interactions on tape for only five minutes. A five-minute miracle! Magic lives.
A lot of us who’ve spent our lives working with couples heard about this, stroked our chins, and said, Hmmmm… Could be… But probably too good to be true.
And indeed it is. I’ll spare you the details, but you can read them here. He didn’t cheat. He didn’t lie. But if you analyze his statistical methods you see that the procedures he used pretty much guaranteed the outcome he was touting. Basically, he developed an equation for best predicting what would happen to a small sample of couples where the outcome was already known, but he never went on to test this model with other couples.
So what does this mean for you and me?
It means that Gottman is not where the magic lies. It means that looking for little micro-indications of “contempt” is not the super-predictor we think it is. It means that Gottman’s oft-repeated formula for “5 positive interactions for every negative interaction” is too simplistic.
But it also means that contempt is still bad, as are lack of interest in each other, inability to avoid conflict, being bored by each other, not knowing how to make the other feel loved, not being responsible, and a host of other things. It means that, yes, it is better to be nice to each other than to be mean, but it also means that this niceness had better be based on something real, not just an attempt to satisfy the 5-to-1 ratio of good to bad things.
And it means that is you want magic, you should look at the ways couples keep their love alive after many years, at the way people figure out how to forgive each other for real hurts, how even after 45 years someone can think his partner is just wonderful.
And it means that if you want to see magic, you might want to see what goes on when you place your marriage difficulties in the hands of an experienced, talented couples therapist, even though you’ve let your marital difficulties fester for a long time. When placed in the right hands, love can really heal and become as good as it’s ever been.
You can get a glimpse of this magic by checking out the indispensable Our Love Is Too Good to Feel So Bad. The great thing about this amazing book is that it will enable you to put your finger on the one thing that’s causing trouble, and it will show you just what to do about it.
If you’re not sure whether you and your partner should even try to work things out, please check out Too Good to Leave, Too Bad to Stay. You’ll probably find the answers you’re looking for.
And if you need one-on-one help with your relationship, it’s just the kind of thing we’re famous for doing here at The Chestnut Hill Institute.
